According to an internet survey conducted by our Lianhe Zaobao, 70% of the 1,262 respondents said that it is still not time for our government to ease off on property cooling measures. 40% of them even go as far as saying that such considerations should only be made if property prices fall by at least another 20%.
In addition, 18% of the respondents felt that more cooling measures should be imposed to curb rising private home prices, as current measures seemed to have insignificant effects.
The Lianhe Zaobao survey seemed to suggest that a 20% price drop is the “physiological barrier” for most respondents when comes to easing of current cooling measures. Conversely, only 27% of those who responded felt that the existing measures should be relaxed now.
The wife and I wonder if the survey conducted is really an accurate reflection of the current sentiments on the ground. To be fair, 1,200+ respondents is only a small proportion of those who read Lianhe Zaobao (even for their online version). The figure is even smaller if you consider the number of existing/potential participants in the private home market.
But let us assume that the “20% price drop” is really what home buyers want before they deem it necessary for the government to ease off on the cooling measures. We wonder if those respondents that made this call have considered the repercussions of such a 20% drop carefully enough. One might ask at this juncture: if private home prices will to drop by 20%, surely this is a good thing especially for those who are waiting to enter the market. So what possible repercussions are there?
The wife and I believe that those who are waiting to enter the private home market largely fall under 3 broad groups:
The “Cash Rich”
They can jolly well enter the market yesterday already if they choose to, but are remaining on the sideline and waiting for the market to hit their “ideal” price before entering. You be surprised how many of our HDB dwellers actually belong to this group.
The “Risk Taker”
Those who have sold their property earlier or are selling their existing property now (while the market is still lukewarm), and betting that prices will fall drastically in the near future so that they can re-enter the market again. Meantime, they will go on rental or move back to live with their parents.
The “Upgraders”
Those who want to move from HDB to private or a small private to a bigger private apartment, but need to sell their existing homes before they have enough cash to make the switch.
For the “Cash Rich” and “Risk Taker”, they will probably want cooling measures to stay till the property market crashes, if possible. The bigger the price drop, the better it is for them as it increases the potential upside in value of the property that they eventually buy.
But for the “Upgraders”, a significant price drop in private home prices may not necessarily be a blessing. History do indicate that when prices of new private home fall significantly, it will bound to have a “knock on” effect on private resale and eventually HDB resale prices. Although the degree of price drop in the three housing sectors may not be proportional, the price gap that the “Upgrader” group needs to bridge may still remain too wide for them to upgrade. And to make things worse, they now find themselves in a double whammy whereby their existing properties have fallen in value and also become more difficult to sell in a bear market.
So depending on which group of potential market entrant you belong to, a 20% drop in private home prices may not spell tragedy for developers alone…
SG PropTalk 